古代造纸原料的历时性变化及其潜在意义

Temporal Change of Fiber Raw Materials Used in Ancient Chinese Papermaking and Its Implications

关键词:  古纸  纤维原料  历时性变化  基尼-辛普森指数  置信度

Key Words:ancient Chinese handmade papers  fiber raw materials  temporal change  Gini-Simpson index  confidence level

摘要:以过去50年（1966—2016年）发表的493例古纸（两汉到明清）纤维鉴别结果为研究对象，利用统计学方法，探究了3个方面的问题：①古纸鉴别结果是否以及如何支持造纸原料的历时性变化？②不同时期内的造纸原料在使用程度和多样性方面有何不同？③造纸原料在古纸中的使用比例是否存在统计意义上的差别？研究结果表明，造纸原料的种类和数量存在非常明显的历时性变化，且原料多样性的显著增加首次明确出现在宋金元时期，明清时期多样性程度更高。最后，从统计学角度估算了同一时期不同类别原料以及同一种类原料在不同时期的出现概率，前者为已知年代古纸的纤维鉴别提供参考，而后者有助于对纤维种类确定但年代未知的古纸进行断代。

Abstract:Fiber identification results of 493 ancient (Han to Qing dynasties)Chinese handmade papers, published between 1966 and 2016, were collected for statistical analysis to address three research questions: Does fiber identification support a temporal change in the use of fiber raw materials in ancient Chinese papermaking? How did the applications of different fiber raw materials and the diversity of fiber raw materials vary from one period to another? Is there a statistical difference between the proportions of different types of fiber sources? The findings showed a very clear temporal change in fiber raw materials (in terms of both types and quantities) and suggested that the diversity of fiber raw materials increased dramatically for the first time during the Song, Jin, and Yuan dynasties and was even more significant in the following Ming and Qing dynasties. Application probabilities of different fiber raw materials within the same period and application probabilities of a certain type of fiber raw materials through all periods were estimated at three different confidence levels(80%, 95%, 99%). The former would provide reference to the fiber identification of dated ancient Chinese handmade papers, while the latter could help estimate rough periods at certain confidence levels for ancient papers in which the fibers used were identified.