限塑和禁止固废进口政策下中国造纸工业纤维原料的供应策略

Supply Strategy of Fiber Sources for China’s Paper Industry under Policies of Restriction Usage of Plastic and Banning Solid Wastes Importation

关键词:  纤维原料  废纸  限塑  禁止固废进口  造纸工业

Key Words:fiber raw materials  recycled paper  restriction usage of plastic  banning solid wastes importation  paper industry

摘要:废纸是目前我国造纸工业主要的纤维供应来源，在造纸原料结构中占比为56.6%。禁止固废进口政策的实施导致近3000万t纤维供应缺口；“限塑令”将为造纸工业新增约850万t代塑纸和纸板消费需求，预测2025年中国造纸工业纸和纸板消费需求约1.2亿~1.3亿t。限塑和禁止固废进口两方面因素叠加扩大了造纸工业纤维供缺口。目前国内废纸供应已达极限，行业纤维原料进口量也达历史高点，过多依赖木浆、木片进口或过多寄希望于增加国内废纸供应，来解决纤维原料供需矛盾，既不现实也不可行。通过完善自主控制的纤维原料供应链，可大幅削减纤维原料使用成本，才是应对造纸工业纤维原料供应风险的最佳策略。采取加大林浆纸一体化力度、增加国内纸浆材供给，积极发展高得率制浆特别是非木材原料高得率浆，以及具备条件的大型企业积极向海外拓展、建立国内外原料供应双布局优势等措施，才能从根本上解决纤维原料供应问题。

Abstract:Recycled fibers are main fibrous raw materials for China's papermaking industry， accounting for 56.6% of the total fiber raw material consumption. The implementation of the banning solid wastes importation policy would lead to a supplying shortage of nearly 30 million tons of fibers. In 2025， the restriction polices on the usage of plastic as packaging materials will be executed， therefore， there will be a new consumption demand of about 8.5 million tons of paper and paperboard instead of plastic for the paper industry. It was predicted that the consumption demand of paper and paperboard for China's market would be increased up to about 120 million~130 million tons till 2025. The contradiction of fiber supply and consumption of the fiber sources would be aggravated by the superposition of two factors： the restriction polices on using plastic and the import prohibition on solid wastes. At present， the domestic recycled fiber supply has reached the ceiling， and also the dependence of fiber raw material import being reached a historical high level. It is neither realistic nor feasible to rely too much on the import of wood pulp and chips or to increase the domestic recycled fibers to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of fiber raw materials. The best strategy to deal with the supply risk of fiber raw materials is to improve the supply chain of fibrous raw materials which can be controlled independently. Only by strengthening the integration of forestry， pulp and paper， increasing the supply of domestic pulp， actively developing high yield pulping， including development of non-wood high yield pulping， and establishing the advantages of both the domestic and foreign fiber production distribution for the prepared enterprises. Thus， the supply of fiber raw materials can be completely solved.