中国造纸业碳效率时空分布特征及驱动因素分析

Temporal-spatial Distribution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Carbon Efficiency of Paper Industry in China

关键词:  造纸业  碳效率评价  空间马尔可夫链  非期望产出的Super-SBM模型

Key Words:paper industry  carbon efficiency assessment  spatial Markov chains  super-SBM model of non-expected output

摘要:本课题基于非期望产出的超效率松弛值测算模型（Super-SBM模型）对2002—2019年中国造纸业碳效率进行计算，构建空间马尔科夫链概率转移矩阵，从省域尺度探索了中国造纸业碳效率的时空分布特征及演进规律，并采用双向固定效应模型，对不同类型碳效率区的驱动因素进行分析。结果表明，研究期内，中国造纸业碳效率呈现为“南高北低”，东南沿海-中西南地区-北部地区碳效率逐渐降低的空间格局，行业发展水平与碳减排能力具有协同变化特征，高水平的行业发展是造纸业提高碳减排能力的必要条件；碳效率类型具有相对稳定性，实现跨越式发展可能性较小；除产业结构对造纸业不同类型碳效率水平均具有显著影响外，城镇化发展水平、能源结构以及环境规制具有明显的阶段性特征。

Abstract:The carbon efficiency of China’s paper industry from 2002 to 2019 by using the undesirable output super-efficiency model （super-SBM model） based on non-expected output was calculated， the spatial Markov chain probability transition matrix was constructed， and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and evolution law of carbon efficiency of China’s paper industry from the provincial scale were explored. Finally， two-way fixed-effect model was also used to analyze the driving factors of different types of carbon efficiency zones. The results showed that during the study period， the carbon efficiency of China’s paper industry was a spatial pattern of "high in the south and low in the north"， which meaned decreasing from the southeast coastal region to the central and southwestern region to the northern region. The level of industry development and carbon emission reduction capacity had synergistic change characteristics， and high-level industry development was a necessary condition for the paper industry to improve the carbon emission reduction capacity. The type of carbon efficiency was relatively stable， and the possibility of achieving leapfrog development was less. In addition to the industrial structure， which had a significant impact on the carbon efficiency level of different types of paper industry， the level of urbanization development， energy structure and environmental regulation had obvious stage characteristics.