CPTPP扩容对中国造纸产业的影响

Impact of CPTPP Expansion on China’s Paper Industry

关键词:  CPTPP  造纸产业  GTAP  产业分析

Key Words:CPTPP  paper industry  GTAP  industry analysis

摘要:本课题基于全球动态一般均衡模型，从关税削减及贸易便利化水平提升角度，探究CPTPP进一步扩容对中国造纸产业市场结构调整、解决国内发展困境的影响作用。结果表明，CPTPP进一步扩容将促进中国造纸产业发展，但受产业规模、竞争力与互补性影响，CPTPP对韩国、美国等国家的进一步扩容将弱化中国与原CPTPP国家造纸产业的贸易联系。其中，日本、马来西亚与中国造纸产业贸易互补性高，贸易联系稳定；墨西哥由于与中国造纸产业贸易互补性高、竞争力弱、且国内需求潜力大，有望成为未来发展的焦点，但越南、澳大利亚则受CPTPP进一步扩容影响明显，容易被美国、韩国等国家替代。基于此，本课题提出中国应持续推动贸易谈判、加强海外投资布局，维护造纸产业链供给链稳定，促进产业链深度融合，重塑价值链分工格局。

Abstract:Based on the global dynamic general equilibrium model， this paper explored the effects of CPTPP and further expansion on the market structure adjustment and domestic development dilemma of China’s paper industry from the perspective of tariff reduction and trade facilitation. The results showed that the expansion of CPTPP would promote the development of China’s paper industry， but due to the influence of industrial scale， competitiveness， and complementarity， the further expansion of CPTPP to South Korea， the United States， and other countries would weaken the trade relationship between China and the former CPTPP countries. Among them， the trade between Japan， Malaysia， and China was highly complementary and the trade relationship was stable. Mexico was expected to become the focus of future development because of its high complementarity， weak competitiveness with China， and great potential for domestic demand， but Vietnam and Australia were obviously affected by the CPTPP further expansion and were easily replaced by the United States， South Korea， and other countries. Based on this， this paper proposed that China should continue to promote trade negotiations， strengthen the layout of overseas investment， maintain the stability of the paper supply chain， promote the deep integration of the industry chain， and reshape the division of labor in the value chain.