中国造纸行业出口贸易的影响因素及潜力研究

Research on the Influencing Factors and Potential of Export Trade in China’s Paper Industry

关键词:  中国造纸行业  出口贸易  影响因素  贸易潜力

Key Words:China’s paper industry  export trade  influencing factors  potential capacity of trade

摘要:本课题通过分析中国造纸行业贸易现状及特点，基于2011—2022年中国与30个贸易伙伴国的面板数据，构建拓展的贸易引力模型，研究中国造纸行业出口贸易的影响因素和潜力。结果表明，中国对纸浆的进口依存度较高，近年来，在各类纸产品进口量下降的情况下，中国造纸行业的出口规模却呈上升趋势。经济规模、森林资源差异、运输成本、本币兑美元汇率、清关效率、签署自贸协定、运输效率及文化因素，均对中国造纸行业出口贸易具有显著影响；在中游和下游纸制品上，中国与主要国家分别属于贸易“潜力开拓型”和“潜力巨大型”。为此，中国应提高造纸产品质量和附加值，降低对纸浆等上游产品的进口依存度，加快推进与主要国家签署自贸协定。

Abstract:This paper analyzed the current situation and characteristics of China’s paper industry trade， constructed an expanded trade gravity model based on panel data of China and 30 trading partner countries from 2011 to 2022， and studied the influencing factors and potential of China’s paper industry export trade. The results showed that China had a high degree of dependence on the import of pulp. In recent years， while the import volume of various paper products had decreased， the export scale of China’s paper industry had shown an upward trend. Economic scale， forest resource differences， transportation efficiency， exchange rate of local currency against the US dollar， customs clearance efficiency， signing of free trade agreements， transportation level， and cultural factors had significant impacts on China’s paper industry export trade. In the midstream and downstream paper product trade， China was considered “aoneer potential” while major countries were seen as having “significant potential”. Thus， China should focus on enhancing the quality and value-added of its paper products， reducing reliance on imported upstream materials like pulp， and expediting the negotiation of free trade agreements with major countries.