中国造纸工业隐含碳排放测算及其影响因素分析

Embodied Carbon Accounting and Influencing Factors Analysis of China’s Paper Industry

关键词:  造纸工业  投入产出表  隐含碳  LMDI分解

Key Words:paper industry  input-output model  embodied carbon  LMDI decomposition

摘要:本研究通过构建碳排放投入产出模型与LMDI分解模型，对我国造纸工业进行隐含碳排放核算和主要影响因素贡献进行探究，为造纸工业全面制定绿色转型策略提供依据。结果表明，造纸工业隐含碳排放远高于直接碳排放，研究期间，间接碳排放占比70%以上且逐年上升，到2020年间接碳排放占比突破90%。造纸工业对能源供应行业碳排放的拉动量最高，对其他制造产品和废品废料业的碳排放拉动量不断增加。间接碳排放强度效应对造纸工业隐含碳排放起最大程度负向驱动作用，经济发展效应对造纸工业隐含碳排放起最大程度正向驱动作用，技术进步和能源结构效应存在较大发展空间。同时提出了政府要强化政策引导，推动节能减排技术发展，重视国内造纸工业产业链中间投入的碳减排工作等相应对策。

Abstract:This study constructed the carbon emission input-output model and LMDI decomposition model to calculate the embodied carbon emission of China’s paper industry and explore the contribution of the main influencing factors， so as to provide a basis for the paper industry to develop green transformation strategies. The results showed that the embodied carbon emissions of the paper industry were much higher than the direct carbon emissions， and the indirect carbon emissions account for more than 70% during the study period and increased year by year， and the indirect carbon emissions account for more than 90% by 2020. The paper industry contributed the most carbon emissions to the energy supply sector， and the carbon emissions of other manufactured products and waste products were increasing. The indirect carbon emission intensity effect had the largest negative driving effect on the embodied carbon emission of the paper industry， and the economic development effect had the largest positive driving effect on the embodied carbon emission of the paper industry. It was proposed that the government should strengthen policy guidance， promote the development of energy saving and emission reduction technology， and pay attention to the carbon emission reduction work of the intermediate input of the domestic paper industry supply chain.