造纸行业碳排放解耦及预测分析

Decoupling and Prediction Analysis of Carbon Emissions for the Paper Industry

关键词:  造纸行业  碳排放  产量  解耦  预测

Key Words:paper industry  carbon emission  production  decoupling  prediction

摘要:采用Tapio模型分析了造纸行业碳排放与产量之间的解耦状态，基于STIRPAT模型预测了不同发展模式下造纸行业的碳排放水平。结果表明，造纸行业碳排放量与产量之间多为强解耦和弱解耦状态，其中能源强度和电力排放因子是驱动碳排放解耦的主要因素；按照现有模式发展，造纸行业的碳排放量将继续增长；为实现造纸行业碳排放量的降低，除降低电力排放因子和提高废纸回收率外，还应综合采用改善能源效率及加快能源转型等多种脱碳手段，以实现碳排放从2030年开始由增长转变为降低状态的目标。

Abstract:Tapio model was used to analyze the decoupling state between carbon emissions and paper production， and the carbon emissions under different development scenarios were predicted based on the STIRPAT model for the paper industry. The results showed that the carbon emissions and paper production were decoupled strongly or weakly. The energy intensity and electricity emission factor were the main factors to drive decoupling the carbon emissions. The total carbon emissions of paper industry would continue to increase under the current development scenario. In order to mitigate these emissions， in addition to reducing the emission factor of electricity and increasing the recycling rate of waste paper， the comprehensive use of improving energy efficiency and accelerating energy transition should be encouraged to achieve the purpose of transforming the carbon emission from growth to reduction from 2030.