中国造纸行业碳排放研究进展：核算、影响与路径

Research Progress on Carbon Emissions in China’s Paper Industry: Accounting, Impacts, and Pathways

关键词:  造纸行业  碳排放  碳核算  碳足迹  低碳转型  生命周期评价

Key Words:pulp and paper industry  carbon emissions  carbon accounting  carbon footprint  low-carbon transition  life cycle assessment (LCA)

摘要:本文首先从生命周期评价（LCA）、投入产出分析及核算边界等维度，评述了碳排放核算方法与关键议题。其次，分析了中国造纸行业碳排放的时空演变特征，并运用因素分解模型揭示了经济增长、能源强度与能源结构等核心驱动因素的作用机制。进而，从源头控制、过程节能、末端治理、系统协同等层面，归纳了碳减排的关键技术与路径体系。最后，指出现有研究在数据基础、动态模拟、技术经济综合评估及政策协同分析等方面的不足，并展望了构建统一核算平台、深化系统集成优化、加强多情景模拟与政策协同效应评估、拓展全球价值链碳责任等未来研究方向，以期为推动中国造纸行业深度脱碳与高质量发展提供理论参考。

Abstract:This paper systematically reviewed carbon emission accounting methods and key issues from the perspectives of life cycle assessment (LCA)， input-output analysis， and accounting boundaries. Secondly， it analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in China’s paper industry and employed decomposition models to reveal the mechanisms of core driving factors such as economic growth， energy intensity， and energy structure. Finally， the paper pointed out deficiencies in existing research regarding data foundations， dynamic simulation， techno-economic comprehensive assessment， and policy synergy analysis. It also prospected future research directions， including building a unified accounting platform， deepening research on system integration and optimization， strengthening multi-scenario simulation and policy synergy effect evaluation， and expanding research on carbon responsibilities within global value chains， aiming to provide theoretical references for promoting deep decarbonization and high-quality development in China’s pulp and paper industry.